The following was written by Katharine C. Gorka, Chair of the Fairfax County Republican Committee
Fairfax’s Latino/Hispanic populations may play a key role in shifting Fairfax County back toward a Republican majority, based on national trends. According to a new NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC Poll, 54% of registered Latino voters nationwide say they support Harris, while 40% would vote for Trump. This marks a steady decline for Democrats among Hispanic voters over the last four election cycles. In the 2012 presidential election, Democrats had a 41-point advantage among Hispanic voters. In 2016, that dropped to 39 points, and in 2020 it further decreased to 31 points. According to recent polling, Kamala Harris has only a 14-point lead among Hispanic voters. Given that Hispanics make up 16.5% of the population in Fairfax County, this shift in support away from the Democratic Party could have a major impact on elections here.
Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, argues that the reasons for a Hispanic shift to the political right are driven by economic and security concerns: “Hispanics more than any other ethnic group likely bear the brunt of the migrants’ disruption. Crime that occurs happens on their streets. The jobs migrants try to get are the same ones many Hispanic citizens also hold and covet. The rocky economy also affects Latinos more than the upper-class whites who set the Biden administration’s policies. Inflation always ravages the poor and working class first, and Hispanics tend to be poorer and less educated than white Americans.”
Those concerns are closely mirrored here in Northern Virginia. In polling that was conducted in Virginia’s Congressional District 10 in 2023 (CD 10 covers parts of Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William Counties), 41% of Hispanics said inflation and the economy were their number one priority, whereas only 29% of whites ranked inflation and the economy as their top priority. For Hispanics, the next most pressing issues were national security at 12%, and illegal immigration and the border at 11%. Their fourth highest concern was health care. By comparison, white voters rated their concerns as follows: inflation and economy 29%, illegal immigration and the border 16%, abortion 14%, and threats to democracy.
For individuals who care about the economy and safety, Fairfax County is not on a good track. Led by a 9-1 Democrat-controlled Board of Supervisors, a 12-0 Democrat-led School Board, a Democrat sheriff, and a radical-left, Soros-backed Democrat Commonwealth’s Attorney, Fairfax County has seen tax rates increase, crime rise, and school performance decline—with Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and technology dropping from 1st to 14th place in the nation and 6 high schools at risk of losing accreditation. All of this is on top of the price increases and interest-rate hikes of the Biden/Harris era.
In addition to these burdens on Hispanics in Fairfax County, the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors is now preparing to impose up to a 6% meals tax, in spite of having a surplus in the current year’s budget. Many Hispanic workers in the county depend on ready-made meals during the workday, and these would be subject to the new tax. Springfield District Supervisor Pat Herrity, a Republican, is the only member of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors to oppose a meals tax.
Public safety has also declined because Fairfax County has in effect made itself a sanctuary county. In January 2021, the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors adopted the Public Trust and Confidentiality Policy, to “…improve community health, welfare, safety, security, and trust by ensuring that immigrant residents can access county services without fear that the information they share will be disclosed to federal immigration officials.” What that means is that illegal immigrants who break the law are released rather than being turned over to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for deportation. Fairfax County saw a number of recent violent crimes by people who were not only here illegally but who had been detained and released numerous times.
Astrid Gamez, Chair of the Latino National Republican Coalition in Virginia, and Chair of the Virginia Latino Advisory Board, says, “Latino/Hispanics increasingly recognize that their values more closely align with the Republican Party. We are pro-family and we came here for safety and for opportunities.”
Juan Pablo Segura, an entrepreneur who grew up in McLean, Virginia, and who ran for State Senate in Loudoun County, identifies strongly with his Latino heritage since both of his parents are from Argentina. Segura, a current leader across the state in economic development and investment, says, “Latinos are the new swing voters. Winning back Fairfax County starts with the Latino population.”