New Poll Shows Virginia Governor’s Race in a Dead Heat, Miyares Takes Lead in AG Race

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This article originally appeared here, at wjla.com

ARLINGTON, Va. (7News) — A new Trafalgar Group poll shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger leading Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by two and a half points among likely Virginia voters, which is within the poll’s margin of error.

The Trafalgar Group, which was the most accurate pollster of Virginia’s gubernatorial election four years ago, conducted a poll last week of more than one thousand likely voters.

The Trafalgar poll shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears for governor 47.7% to 45.1%, which is within the poll’s 2.9% margin of error. Five and a half percent of likely voters were undecided in the governor’s race.

In the race for Virginia Lieutenant Governor, the Trafalgar poll shows Democrat Sen. Ghazala Hashmi leading Republican John Reid 46.8 to 45.9%.

In the race for Virginia Attorney General, the Trafalgar poll shows Republican incumbent Jason Miyares leading Democrat Jay Jones by nearly six points, 48.9% to 43.1%.

The pollster said one reason why the race for Virginia governor is in a dead heat is because of voters’ views of Spanberger’s running mate’s violent text messages.

“Sixty percent of the people said it was having a significant to some impact,” Trafalgar Group Chief Pollster Robert Cahaly told 7News.

It’s those text messages that prompted one law enforcement group to call out another for supporting Spanberger.

Read the letter from We Back Blue below:

Click here to view the PDF file.

The national law enforcement group called We Back Blue is calling on the Virginia Police Benevolent Association to withdraw its endorsement of Spanberger after her refusal to call on Jones to exit the race for Virginia Attorney General.

“From a law enforcement and public safety perception, I don’t think she’s right for the state, and I think the PBA should, at a minimum, just withdraw their endorsement and let the election speak for itself,” said Robert O’Donnell with We Back Blue.

As 7News has reported, Jones sent text messages about shooting Former House Speaker Todd Gilbert in the head and hoping his children would die.

The violent texts took center stage during last week’s debate, where Spanberger was asked if she still supports Jones.

Spanberger said she doesn’t support Jones’ language in his text messages, and she said she thinks what he said is abhorrent.

“I am running for governor, I am accountable for the words that I say or the acts that I take, for the policies that I have put out,” Spanberger said at last week’s debate.

“What if he said it about your two children? Your three children? Is that when you would say he should get out of the race, Abigail? You’re running to be governor,” Earle-Sears said while confronting Spanberger at last week’s debate.

Stephen Selby is a retired Fairfax County police officer who wants the PBA to end its endorsement of Spanberger, adding that the leadership of the PBA doesn’t speak for all police officers.

“The rank and file definitely support Winsome Sears for governor, because Abigail Spanberger is going to end all of the cooperation and everything good that the Governor has done for law enforcement. Everybody I’ve talked to in the rank and file are quite surprised at the endorsement,” Selby said.

“I mean, look at Virginia Beach PBA, where they endorsed Winsome,” said O’Donnell, who mentioned other police organizations and 81 Virginia sheriffs endorsed Earle-Sears.

Some officers have told 7News they’ve canceled their PBA memberships because of the Spanberger endorsement.

Spanberger has touted her endorsement from the Virginia PBA on the campaign trail.

The Virginia PBA told 7News Reporter Nick Minock that they stand by their endorsement decisions.

“The Virginia PBA stands by its endorsement decisions, which are made through a fair, structured process focused on a candidate’s policies and commitment to law enforcement, not political convenience,” the Virginia Benevolent Association wrote in a statement to 7News.”Our statement on Jay Jones made clear that we condemn all violent or divisive rhetoric, regardless of party, and that Jones should not take office if elected.”

On Oct. 3, the content of Jones’ text messages about Gilbert was revealed. They are messages Jones admits to sending to Republican Del. Carrie Coyner a few years ago.

Jones texted, “Three people, two bullets, Gilbert, Hitler, and Pol Pot. Gilbert gets two bullets to the head.”

After a phone call, Coyner texted Jones, “You were talking about hoping Jennifer Gilbert’s children would die.”

Jones answered, “Yes, I’ve told you this before. Only when people feel pain personally do they move on policy.”

The new Trafalgar poll was conducted the day before the Spanberger and Earle-Sears debate, the day of the debate, and the day after the debate.

The pollster told 7News that the poll in the race for governor got much tighter after the debate.

“Even over the course of the few days we were in the field, we noticed that it got tighter each day, and I know that there was a debate, and after the poll came out, I went back and watched that debate, and I think that may have had some impact in this polling,” Cahaly said.

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