James A. Bacon | baconsrebellion.com

For the past 25 years, the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors has been increasing real estate taxes three times faster than household income.  That trend continues this year.

Residential assessments increased by an average 6.2% this year, which means that unless the supervisors adopt a reduced property tax rate, the average homeowner’s real estate tax will increase 6.2%.

However, a 6.2% tax increase is not enough for the Board of Supervisors.  Instead of reducing the rate to offset the assessment increase, the board under the leadership of Chairman Jeff McKay is actually adding 1½ cents to the tax rate!  This increases the average homeowner’s tax hike to 7.5% – the largest real estate tax hike in ten years!

The tax bill for the average homeowner would increase from $8,659 to $9,312, a $653 increase.

Chairman McKay is advocating a new meals tax as an alternative to the 1½ cent rate increase. However, even with the meals tax, the average real estate tax would still increase 6.2% due to higher assessments. Businesses already pay about 15 taxes.  For restaurants, the meals tax would make it 16 taxes.

The Board of Supervisors will decide on the tax rate and the meals tax by May 6, following the board’s budget hearings to be held at the Government Center on Tuesday-Thursday, April 22-24.

A primary driver for soaring real estate taxes is raises, pensions, and medical insurance. The Board of Supervisors demands $300 million in new revenue annually to give 4% raises to 40,000 county and school employees, outpacing the 2.5% inflation rate.

Also, pensions are costly.   The county’s contribution for non-uniformed employees’ pensions is 34% of salary.  Private-sector employees typically only get 401K plans to which the average private employer contributes 6% of salary. 

What do soaring real estate taxes buy for Fairfax County?

• A 40-point drop in SAT scores between 2019 and 2024, while school funding increased $600 million;
• The Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology has fallen from 1^st to 14^th in the U.S. News and World Report ranking;
• A police force that had 249 vacancies (a 16% vacancy rate) as of 12/31/23, despite a $59,000 starting salary, an average salary of $99,000, and a pension for which the county contributes 58% of salary;
• Unaffordable housing. Seniors are forced out. College graduates cannot afford to move here. Subsidized housing will never meet the need; it must be built by the private sector;
• Slow permitting for businesses;
• An increase of 304 employees and a 247% funding rise in Public Assistance and Employee Services since FY2000;
• An increase in SNAP (food stamp) and Medicaid recipients – 23,000 and 59,000 more respectively — since FY2020;
• Of 94 counties with populations over 1 million, Fairfax County ranks 19^th in domestic out-migration, next to Chicago.  In 2024, Fairfax County net domestic migration was a loss of 8,000 while net international migration was a gain of 16,000; 
• Since 2000, a loss of 200,000 taxpayers and $15 billion of Adjusted Gross Income, according to IRS data;
• The Washington, D.C., metropolitan area ranks 263^rd in economic performance among 411 U.S. metropolitan areas, according to areadevelopment.com. Last December 4, there was the second annual Capital Area Economic Forum at Vienna’s Westwood Country Club. The urgent message is that the D.C. metro area is falling behind because it is unaffordable.

Four percent average raises compared to 2.5% inflation and the high cost of pensions and medical insurance are primary reasons for the county’s $300 million budget shortfall this year.

To make Fairfax County affordable and help the D.C. area become a leader among U.S. metropolitan areas, the FCTA recommends:

1. Limiting real estate tax increases to the rate of household income growth, which would mean lower raises while probably still covering $58 million for county and school pension and medical insurance rate hikes.
2. Running quality schools and a business-friendly county where household incomes increase faster than inflation to fund above-inflation raises.
3. Streamlining salary increases to one performance-based raise per year as in the private sector, rather than two raises a year, i.e., a Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) plus a step increase. Drop the COLA.
4. Auditing county and school programs and staffing, especially administrative staffing.