EO 14019 DATA ANALYSES OF NVRA 2020-2024 TRENDS
FAIRFAX COUNTY VOTER REGISTRATIONS
[This report will be updated monthly. September totals may show significant increases.]
In light of Presidential EO 14019 dated March 7,2021 ordering all Federal Agencies to expand access to voter registration (register voters), ongoing trend analyses is being conducted to determine what effect, if any, this Executive Order is having on voter registration statistics in Fairfax County, Virginia. Data sources being examined include multiple Virginia monthly ELECT NVRA Registration Statistics and Fairfax County’s Monthly Registrar’s Report, covering the five-year period beginning with 2020 through 2024. Below is a brief summary of what the data is showing.
To begin the analyses, Monthly ELECT NVRA statistics were compared with the June through September 2024 Fairfax County Registrar’s Reports on Voter Registrations. The Registrar’s office agreed to normalize Fairfax County voter registration statistics detailed in the monthly Fairfax Registrar’s Report with ELECT’s NVRA monthly report so an effective comparison could be conducted beginning with the June 2024 Registrar’s Report. The data was normalized and compared to ELECT’s data. It essentially matched, except for a few variables that were off by one or two transactions. The normalization of the data by the Registrar’s office improves the ability of the public to analyze trends.
Next, an assessment of the overall NVRA data covering years 2020 through 2024 was done to determine past trends and to develop a baseline for future analyses. The data showed that 2020 had more total voter registrations than in 2021, 2022 or 2023 (See Below Chart). Voter registrations were higher in Presidential election year 2020 as would be expected. Voter registrations were also higher in 2021 than in 2022 and 2023, most likely due to the Virginia Governor’s race in 2021. Voter registrations dropped considerably in 2022 and 2023, both ordinary election years. Because 2024 is another Presidential election year, registrations in Fairfax County are expected to increase markedly as they did in 2020. To date, voter registrations in 2024 have slightly exceeded 2020, both Presidential election years, currently at 196,489 and are expected to continue to increase up through the November 5 election.
2020 thru 2024 NVRA Yearly Voter Registration Totals
Year Total Voter Registrations Total Voter Registrations Jan thru Aug 31
2020 382,450 193,569
2021 317,797 209,127
2022 282,274 135,910
2023 248,230 158,461
2024 TBD 196,489
The trends over this five-year period continue to appear normal and are not indicative of any noteworthy effect from EO 14019.
The data was further parsed by New Registrants and Net New Registrants, looking for comparable patterns in the voter registrations. The trends appear to be similar with larger increases in Presidential election years and falling off in years with no Federal races, showing no apparent effect from EO 14019. (See Table Below)
2020 thru 2024 NVRA Yearly Voter Registration Totals
Year New Registrants Net New Registrants
2020 51,880 40,476
2021 32,395 (8,324)
2022 33,942 3,891
2023 30,196 1,959
2024 YTD 27,785 18,222
Next, we examined the five major avenues that account for the greatest number of Virginia’s voter registrations. Those five avenues, respectively, are the Department of Motor Vehicle (DMV), State Mail-in Forms, 3rd Party Voter Drives, Discretionary Agencies and Election Day Same Day Registrations (SDRs), which began in 2022.
DMV accounts for the largest number of voter registrations throughout all five years with the patterns matching the above analyses. 2020 and 2021 (Presidential and Governor race years) were responsible for the largest volume of registrations followed by 2022 and 2023. 2024 is expected to be greater than 2022 and 2023, although it is lagging below the last Presidential election year and the 2021 Governor’s race year (344,292 vs. 176,242 YTD).
State Mail-In Forms and 3rd Party Voter Drives voter registrations were higher in 2020, the last Federal election year, than in all subsequent years. The expectation is to continue to see similar increases up until the November 2024 election.
Discretionary Agencies voter registrations showed an upward trend from 3,914 in 2020 to 7,111 in 2023. 2024 is on pace with the four prior years, 4,535 YTD. Further analyses will be performed to determine if the increases are directly related to EO 14019 over 2021 thru 2024.
Same Day Registrations (SDRs) have been available since 2022 and are definitely adding to increased voter registrations by the thousands. We expect SDR’s to increase considerably during the November 2024 election. (See Table Below)
2020 thru 2024 NVRA Voter Registration Totals by Category
Registration Source 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-YTD
DMV 344,292 278,162 240,122 212,670 176,242
State Mail-In Form 13,399 4,662 4,070 3,325 2,440
3rd Party Voter Drive 5,842 1,691 3,238 3,345 3,747
Discretionary Agencies 3,914 5,754 5,493 7,111 4,535
SDRs 0 0 6,031 4,867 1,741
In conclusion, the trends examined to date do not show any substantial changes in Fairfax County voter registration patterns due to Presidential Executive Order 14019 and will continue to be monitored monthly for the foreseeable future in an effort to detect changes in voter registrations directly related to Executive Order14019.