By Bart Marcois – October 26, 2024
What’s going right in Virginia? Nearly everything, if you are President Trump or Senate candidate Hung Cao. Early voting in person, early mail-in ballot returns, energy, enthusiasm, and crowd sizes at any Republican gathering all point to a strong showing in the Old Dominion. In fact, we are hearing reports that the Harris campaign is pulling staff from nearby low-priority states to shore up their efforts in Virginia.
I ignited a firestorm on X this week with the following simple post:
Just in: The Harris campaign is panicking about losing Virginia. They are pulling staff from other states to shore up their position in Virginia. Virginia is not only in play; Pres. Trump is going to win Virginia, and so is @HungCao_VA.
That post went viral and currently has well over 1.3 million views. Judging by the comments, people in Virginia can feel it and people in other states are seeing similar levels of enthusiasm on the Republican side. Invariably, people asked about my source; some doubted a source exists. Without revealing the identity, I can only say that it is someone with knowledge of the conversations among Harris Virginia staffers, in whom I have high confidence.But there is a great deal of objective evidence to support the assertion. I will lay out the case. None of what follows is dispositive proof, and I admit that my information about the Harris campaign derives from a single source. But it is backed up by confirmed public reporting, by the Washington political/media circuit, and by many personal observations detailed below.
The source has confirmed that the Harris people are “panicking” (not my word) and that they are importing staff “from other states.” There is no suggestion that those other states are Georgia and Pennsylvania, as some people speculated. That beggars belief—I assume the staffers are coming from states lower in priority, not higher.
There also are confirmed public reports that the UK Labour Party has sent staffers to help the Harris campaign in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Virginia. That alone is sufficient evidence that Virginia is in play. Otherwise, the third state the UK staff would go to would be Michigan or Arizona.
But there’s much more. There is unprecedented energy among GOP early voters. In-person voters are running about 47% GOP and 45% Democrat. This is a sharp reversal from previous years. Even in Fairfax County, in-person voting is running well over 40% GOP. That is an extraordinary rate here. For comparison purposes, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in Fairfax County 72-28 percent in 2020. Combined with massive turnout in traditional GOP areas, that suggests a strong and clear majority for Trump. And for Senate candidate and retired Navy Captain Hung Cao, who rises with Trump’s fortunes.
There is also the ongoing great realignment among demographic groups between the two major parties. That applies not only to the working class vs. the elites but also to traditionally Democrat ethnic groups and legal immigrants. For example, internal GOP polls show our side leading by 2-3 points in Richmond, which we are truly glad to see. It suggests that the support for Hung Cao and Trump among black men is real and that it may be stronger than public polling reflects. The two candidates work well together, and just as Captain Cao is boosted by Trump, the former president is also boosted by Hung Cao, whose campaign presents a clear traditional masculine persona.
Importantly, we are seeing enormous and overwhelming support for Trump and Hung Cao among every segment of the legal immigrant community. Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, Indian, and Afghan communities—all influential in northern Virginia—are extremely supportive. Pakistani, West African, and Ethiopian communities are nearly as strong. Hispanic, Arab-American, and other Muslim-American communities are open to persuasion, and they have swung to support Trump by as much as 50%. Most of the people in these communities are united in their opposition to Harris and Walz, even among those segments who don’t support Trump. And except for Vietnamese and West African immigrants, most of these voters have traditionally voted Democrat by large majorities. They represent over 200,000 voters in Fairfax County alone.
In Virginia, polls close at 7:00, an hour earlier than most states in the Eastern time zone. The reforms passed by Gov. Youngkin and the electoral commission have done away with voting machines, tightened up counting rules and voter rolls, and generally contributed to a more reliable electoral process. An early and unexpected Trump victory here would send shock waves across the country and bring about a decisive national victory. I believe that is why the Harris campaign is panicking and why they are importing staff to shore up their position in Virginia.
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Bart Marcois is the former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Energy and a retired American diplomat. He is Chairman of the Braddock District in the Fairfax Republican Party. Follow him on X @bmarcois and at www.aMinuteWithBart.com.