By James Jarvis – Published November 6, 2024 at 2:30PM
In the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election, Fairfax County Democrats are confronting a more competitive Virginia, where heightened Republican mobilization has raised alarms about their hold on power in the purple state.
While Vice President Kamala Harris won Virginia by more than 5 percentage points, her margin was notably lower than President Joe Biden’s in 2020, when he won the state by over 10 points. Similarly, in Fairfax County, Harris captured 65.44% of the vote, down from Biden’s 69.85%.
Dominic Thompson, executive director of the Fairfax County Democratic Committee, expressed pride in the county’s overall voter turnout of 68.35% but noted that Republicans seemed “more mobilized locally” than in 2020, contributing to their stronger showing.
“I think Republicans really stepped up their local game this year throughout the Commonwealth, and I think that Democratic committees throughout the Commonwealth always have to be asking, ‘How can we also step up to keep pace and outperform?’” he told FFXnow.
Thompson says overconfidence at the local, state, and national levels played a significant role in Democrats’ performance, noting that many in the party assumed Virginia’s trend toward blue would hold steady and redirected their national focus to other battleground states.
“I think we all kind of were looking around the country and we’re like, ‘Hey, North Carolina needs our help to turn blue. Pennsylvania needs our help to turn blue,’ which ultimately, those things did not happen,” Thompson said. “There was such a focus on other areas that we kind of forgot we are a blue state now, but we have to keep working for it.”
Local, state officials react to election results
Democratic officials at the local, state, and federal levels have been notably silent in the hours after the presidential race was called for Trump, with a few exceptions.
Hunter Mill District Supervisor Walter Alcorn told FFXnow that he was “disappointed” by the results.
“I worry about our area under another Trump administration, and I think it’s important for the community to hang together during times like this,” he said.
Fairfax City Democrats issued a statement early this morning congratulating the winners of local races, including Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly, who won his reelection bid by more than 33 percentage points.
“While the news about the presidential race is disappointing, the City Dems remain committed to fighting for the values that we treasure the most: equity, environmental stewardship, smart growth, a safe and welcoming city for all, access to housing, commitment to celebrating our diversity, fighting for working families and more,” the group said in a press release.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin also released a statement this morning congratulating Democrats and Republicans statewide, as well as President-elect Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance, on their victories, emphasizing that the election was “fair and secure.”
“In Virginia, we took concrete steps to protect our election process and Virginians know that they can have faith in our election results because we have paper ballots, counting machines not connected to the internet, strong chain of custody requirements, secure drop boxes, and most importantly — the cleanest voter rolls in America,” Youngkin said in a press release.
Youngkin’s administration was hit with lawsuits over an executive order that led about 1,600 voters to be removed Virginia’s rolls after they were flagged as “noncitizens.” The Justice Department and civil rights groups argued the removals violated a federal law prohibiting voter purges within 90 days of an election.
Though the U.S. Supreme Court allowed the removals to resume, Virginia Elections Commissioner Susan Beals said yesterday (Tuesday) that no additional voters were dropped after Oct. 15.
The Fairfax County Republican Committee did not respond to FFXnow’s request for comment on the outcome of the election, but published a statement on Twitter congratulating Trump and Vance.
“All our fears have been put to rest,” the post said. “Our hard work has paid off. The weak, radical, decrepit leadership of Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer is over.”
Where one local exit poll went wrong
Local party officials weren’t alone in their surprise at the results.
An early exit poll conducted by students at GMU’s Schar School of Policy and Government during early voting and on Election Day showed Harris performing better in some Fairfax suburban districts compared to Biden in 2020.
After initially predicting that Harris would win the state by over 12 percentage points, Jeremy Mayer, an associate professor at the Schar School, acknowledged that his team’s poll significantly overestimated her support in Fairfax and across Virginia.
He attributed this to a high refusal rate among Republican voters, estimated at 35-40%, noting that many Trump supporters, who often distrust media and academic institutions, declined to participate.
“Universities are seen by many Republicans as hostile, and there is some truth to that. There are a lot of liberals on college campuses, and there’s not a lot of respect for anti-intellectual Republicans,” he told FFXnow. “There’s a lot of respect for traditional Republicans, the ones that speak in complete sentences, but for those who reject expertise, it’s really hard for people who teach expertise to be fair to them. So, there is some cause for Republican animosity towards universities.”
Mayer noted that Trump’s performance in Virginia mirrored national trends, showing improvement among voter groups and in regions where he previously struggled.
He emphasized that the more relevant comparison is with 2020, as the exit poll showed notable growth for Democrats in three Fairfax precincts — Cardinal Forest Elementary School in Springfield, Centerpointe (the Herrity Building), and Little Run Elementary School — highlighting increased polarization.
Mayer added that Trump performed better in the suburbs of Richmond compared to Fairfax County, underscoring the unique relationship between the D.C. suburbs and the federal government.
“I think the DMV is in kind of a bubble, and that bubble is being so dependent on federal spending and Trump’s plans for federal employees … are bad news for places inside the beltway, and I think that’s probably what we were measuring and part of the strong antipathy for Trump,” he said.
Looking ahead to 2025
As the dust settles on the 2024 election, Virginia Democrats are already preparing for the high-stakes battle that is the 2025 gubernatorial election.
With the governorship and control of the state legislature on the line, Thompson says the party is focused on learning from this year’s results and building a resilient strategy that addresses shifting political dynamics.
In the months ahead, Thompson says Democrats will work to strengthen their ground game, refine messaging and prioritize key issues like inflation and tax reform. Efforts will also focus on recruiting strong candidates for the 2025 gubernatorial race, with soon-to-be former Rep. Abigail Spanberger considered a promising contender to reclaim the governor’s mansion.
“I think Abigail Spanberger is one of the best candidates that we have here in Virginia,” Thompson said. “I mean, message-discipline wise, she’s great. She has a great background and she has a history of winning tight races, which, unfortunately we learned in 2021 the gubernatorial race can be a tight race.”
Mayer noted Virginia’s tendency to elect governors from the opposite party of the current presidential administration — a pattern that could favor Democrats in 2025, depending on Trump’s performance and its impact on Virginia voters.
“If Trump’s first, say, six, seven months show real success overseas and real success with the economy and no major scandals then, boy, I’d rather be a Republican in Virginia than a Democrat,” Mayer said. “But if Trump gets into office and … and if he’s the Trump of constant upheaval in his White House and really undisciplined, then I’d rather be a Democrat.”
Still, Thompson stressed that for Democrats to maintain their winning streak in Fairfax County, the party must take a hard look inward to grasp the reasons behind Trump’s increasing support.
“I think there needs to be a big reflection on why we’ve lost to Trump twice now,” he said. “Two out of three is not a good ranking.”