Despite political drawbacks, a sales-tax surcharge across Northern Virginia could end up being the main source to increase transit funding in the coming year.
Increasing the sales tax regionally is “probably going to be looked at,” Hunter Mill District Supervisor Walter Alcorn said in a Dec. 4 legislative forum sponsored by the Dulles Area Transportation Association (DATA).
Alcorn is a Virginia representative to the Metro board of directors and currently chairs the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments’ Transportation Planning Board.
He acknowledged the potential pitfalls of increasing a tax that impacts most local residents every day.
“That’s not a politically popular approach,” Alcorn said. “The knock on the sales tax is that it’s regressive, and that’s true.”
But it may be one of the easier ways for Northern Virginia to raise the $400 million per year that a panel of state lawmakers says is needed, starting in mid-2027, to provide long-term support to the Metro system, Virginia Railway Express and local transit agencies in the local area.
A legislative subcommittee led by state Sen. Adam Ebbin (D-39) recently concluded its work, coming up with the $400 million figure and offering a host of potential tax and fee increases that could be used to get it. Consideration of how to implement the transit funding study’s recommendations now moves to Richmond.
The issue will be front and center when the General Assembly convenes on Jan. 14 for its 2026 session. It also will be one of the first political challenges to be faced by the administration of incoming Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D).
The legislature could either directly impose higher taxes and fees to provide the additional revenue, or it could empower local governments in Northern Virginia to determine how to find the money on their own.
Michael Turner, vice chair of the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors, declined to predict what the legislature might do.
“I don’t know what it is,” Turner said of the package that might come to Spanberger’s desk by mid-2026. “What final form that’s going to take is kind of still up in the air.”
Pressed by moderator Adam Tuss, a TV-news reporter and anchor specializing in regional transportation, Alcorn wouldn’t say increasing the sales tax is his preferred option — adding that the decision isn’t his to make.
“It may be some combination,” he said of alternatives for funding. “It may not have the sales tax at all. We’ll have to wait and see.”
Alcorn’s former colleague on the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-11), suggested that “a sales tax is probably the cleanest and simplest option” to getting the revenue.
But there’s a hitch, acknowledged Walkinshaw, who was elected to Congress in September to fill the late Rep. Gerald Connolly’s seat.
Attempts to increase the sales tax for transportation would come as education advocates are pushing state legislators to allow localities to add a 1% sales-tax surcharge for school construction.
“You’re going to have some challenges” attempting to impose both on the public at a time of economic unease, Walkinshaw predicted.
Currently, Northern Virginians pay a 6% sales tax, with 4.3% going to the state government, 1% to localities and 0.7% to state transportation projects. In other parts of the state, sales tax rates range from 5.3% to 7%.
Starting in January, Fairfax County will also join all other Northern Virginia localities, except for Loudoun County, in imposing an additional tax on prepared meals.
Groceries are taxed at a lower rate, and Alcorn suggested “basic necessities” could be exempt from any future surcharge for transportation.
The Dec. 4 DATA roundtable also briefly focused on the topic of whether changes in Richmond could lead to elimination of the so-called Dillon Rule, which limits the authority of local governments to powers explicitly granted them by the commonwealth.
Those limitations have “been an impediment to local governments … for decades,” Alcorn said.
Deshundra Jefferson, who chairs the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, said it would make more sense to empower city, county and town governments to chart their own courses on a variety of issues, including taxation and transportation.
“Local government is closest to the people,” she said. “Impediments to allow us to govern [are] a big problem.”
Neither Alcorn nor Turner envision a Virginia without some form of the Dillon Rule in the near term, but they were more optimistic that state leaders might delegate more authority to local governments on an incremental basis.
“Hopefully, over time, we’re going to see different pieces chipped away,” said Alcorn.
“Give us the power to solve problems ourselves,” pleaded Turner.
An hour after the DATA forum wrapped up, members of the Northern Virginia Transportation Commission (NVTC) convened for their monthly meeting — with transit funding issues top of mind.
Aimee Seibert, a lobbyist for the commission, said four different bills — two in each chamber of the General Assembly — are being prepared for consideration.
One of those who will lead the effort to pass legislation in 2026 predicted an uphill battle.
“It’s going to be a hard sell,” said Del. Mark Sickles (D-17), who served on Ebbin’s subcommittee and is working to get its proposals into law.
Getting to success will present “a complicated challenge,” Sickles said at the NVTC meeting.
But not for lack of trying: Sickles predicted that when legislators assemble in January, “everyone’s going to know about this being the most important issue in Northern Virginia.”
Between now and then, work remains, he told fellow NVTC panelists.
“I’ve got to broaden my pitch,” Sickles said of his personal lobbying efforts. “All these little things add up.”
At the Dec. 4 meeting, NVTC members formally accepted an annual report on the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) that recommends Virginia commit $153 million in operational funding for Metro in fiscal year 2027, and at least $136 million for capital projects in FY 2028.
Both amounts should increase annually going forward, the report says.