This article was published in the DailyProgress.com
As Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears was wrapping up an appearance in front of a crowd of Republican voters in Albemarle County, she said she had one final thing to share before leaving.
“So I know you heard I am not running for the lieutenant governorship again,” the Republican told the enthusiastic audience of more than 100 people, “but I am exploring a run for governor.”
Earle-Sears had to break for applause plenty of times during her 40-minute visit at First Free Coffee Bar at Hollymead Town Center just north of Charlottesville, but it was that last line that earned her a standing ovation.
Earle-Sears, who was elected lieutenant governor in 2021 alongside Gov. Glenn Youngkin, has not formally announced a campaign. But she has been traveling Virginia in a way that gubernatorial candidates do; in a matter of days, she has held events with Republican voters in Pittsylvania, Greene, Nelson, Rockingham and now Albemarle counties. The slew of visits gives the appearance of someone gearing up for a campaign, perhaps testing the waters before diving in.
What does it mean to “explore a run”?
“It means I’m talking to people, taking advice, looking at the landscape, and when I make a decision, then I’ll make a decision,” she told The Daily Progress. “People ask me, ‘Well when are you going to launch?’ And I say, ‘When I stop exploring.’ So we’ll see. We’ll see what happens.”
Earle-Sears’ Sunday appearance had been on the books since May, when her team reached out to the Albemarle County Republican Committee, according to committee Chairman John Lowry. And while she received a very warm welcome, whether she’ll formally declare her candidacy could depend on another member of Youngkin’s administration: Attorney General Jason Miyares.
Both Miyares and Earle-Sears have been rumored to be interested in making a run for governor, setting up a potential showdown between two Youngkin surrogates who each have broad support from GOP voters in the commonwealth. Despite legislative and election defeats, the Youngkin administration remains popular; the governor boasted a 58% favorability rating at the end of last year, according to a Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey.
Lowry hopes, and has reason to believe, that Youngkin’s subordinates want to avoid a public battle for power.
“We’ve been told by both of [their offices] that they very likely will sit down before the beginning of the new year and decide which one is going to run,” Lowry told The Daily Progress. “I hope that’s what will happen. We’d rather them settle it in house. Everybody loves the Youngkin team, so either Jason or Winsome would be fine.”
In Lowry’s opinion, Earle-Sears’ recent travels across the state are part of a “goodwill tour,” a time to gauge support for her potential candidacy.
“Both she and Attorney General Miyares would like to run for governor,” Lowry said. “So if she fell flat on her face in this goodwill tour, then Jason would feel more likely to step in. That’s what I think is going on.”
At First Free Coffee, Earle-Sears certainly didn’t fall flat. The sold-out event at the coffee shop owned by one-time GOP House of Delegates candidate Steve Harvey attracted 150 people, each paying organizers $35 per ticket. After delivering her remarks, most of the audience stood in a long line to take a photo with Earle-Sears. There was broad support for Earle-Sears Sunday, but that doesn’t mean Miyares isn’t popular, even among the same Albemarle County Republicans.
“The two potential candidates are going to have to sit down, or they’re going to have a fight, and we don’t want them to have a fight,” Lowry said.
Such a fight could hurt Republican odds of winning the Executive Mansion. On the other side of the ticket awaits a formidable Democrat, U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger. After Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney withdrew his bid, the congresswoman from Virginia’s 7th District now sits unopposed as the presumptive Democratic nominee. With more than a year to go before the 2025 general election, her campaign has already amassed a war chest of more than $7 million. That number will only grow, and without a primary opponent, she’ll be able to concentrate her spending against the future Republican nominee.
A primary would force the two GOP candidates to spend money and endure intraparty attacks, potentially weakening the eventual victor. It’s a scenario some Republicans want to avoid.
But Dan Moy, who heads the Charlottesville Republican Committee, thinks the contest could actually be healthy.
“You always like to see the team unified. However, we all forget this but there used to be a time in American civics where you could have candidates in the same party running against each other and it was a positive,” Moy told The Daily Progress.
Like Lowry, he thinks highly of both Miyares and Earle-Sears. They each have compelling personal stories, Moy said. Earle-Sears is a Jamaican-born Marine Corps veteran and the first woman of color elected to statewide office. Miyares is the first Hispanic elected to statewide office. Introducing Earle-Sears Sunday, Moy called Youngkin’s team the most diverse executive office in Virginia history.
Moy noted that Earle-Sears never attacked her political opponents during her visit Sunday, instead focusing on policy. He thinks Miyares has a similar demeanor and that the two would avoid personal attacks on the campaign trail.
“Both of them have the character in politics where it’s not about demonizing or putting down your opponent. Yes, let’s have debates over the policy, let’s have debates over the positions. That’s healthy. That’s how we get better,” Moy said. “And if there are two great candidates of the same party that have different perspectives, that bring different things to the table, give the voters choices and let the voters decide what they believe is the best fit for the leadership of the commonwealth.”
Miyares has not signaled his intent one way or another.
Chloe Smith, a spokeswoman for Miyares’ office, offered a statement when asked if Miyares is exploring a run for governor or expects a primary contest with Earle-Sears.
“The Attorney General is focused on making our communities safe, ensuring parents have a say in their children’s education, defending Virginians from federal overreach, and electing Republicans up and down the ballot in 2024,” Smith wrote in an email to The Daily Progress.
Asked if she expects to have to primary the attorney general or if the two could settle the matter privately and quietly, Earle-Sears said, “I don’t know. We’ll see just like everybody else what happens.”
Cole Trower, a consultant for her political action committee, then chimed in.
“I think there were a lot of people here today, wasn’t there?” Trower asked.
There were.
“Were they enthusiastic?”
They were.
If Earle-Sears hadn’t been met with enthusiasm during her recent tour, launching a campaign may look less appealing. But after warm receptions in Albemarle County and elsewhere, the lieutenant governor is clearly gaining momentum. Sunday offered a glimpse into what a real campaign might look like.
“I like to talk policy because that’s what people really want to hear about,” she told the crowd. “What are you going to do if we put you in?”
She focused on business and education.
“Businesses are not going to relocate to a place where their potential employees are undereducated or uneducated,” she told The Daily Progress. “So we’ve got to make sure that all of those pieces fit together.”
Earle-Sears opened her own home appliance business after she lost a congressional election in 2004, and she wants the commonwealth to be an attractive place for other businesses too.
She touted a recent CNBC report ranking Virginia the best state for business in the country. Virginia has won the distinction a record-number six times, including in 2019 and 2021 when Democrat Ralph Northam was governor. Earle-Sears said other states were vying for the title and that Virginia would need to keep pace.
“A battery plant went to North Carolina because they had a mega site ready — over 1,800 acres ready. They had already dug the dirt and put in the foundation,” she said.
States such as Tennessee, which have no income tax, have an advantage, she said.
“We have to make sure that our regulations aren’t so onerous that it takes away from their productivity,” she said. “We’ve got to make sure that our tax policy is competitive.”
She applauded Youngkin’s efforts to reduce the state’s income tax.
“Lord Almighty, he was accused of being for millionaires and billionaires. But guess what? I’m not a millionaire or a billionaire. But it would help me if I was able to keep more money that I make in my pocket,” she told the crowd.
And she criticized the state’s policies during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“When I owned my business, government policy closed my business in response to COVID. So don’t tell me COVID closed my business. No. It was the government policies that closed my business,” she said to applause.
Earle-Sears said her campaign, if there is a campaign, would target parts of the commonwealth that she feels have been overlooked, voters who have been overlooked. That includes Black voters like herself. She told The Daily Progress that before she entered politics, neither party ever reached out to her: Because she’s Black, Democrats thought they could rely on her vote and Republicans thought they couldn’t win it.
“The reason I got into politics way back when was because nobody ever knocked on my door or asked me what I thought,” Earle-Sears said.
Earle-Sears entered politics in 2001, surprising Democratic incumbent Billy Robinson in the 90th District. A couple of years later, she tried to move from the House of Delegates to Congress. After being soundly defeated by Bobby Scott in 2004, she mostly stayed out of public life until 2021 when she won a close race for lieutenant governor.
She presents herself as a practical politician willing to work across the aisle and compromise, uninterested in divisiveness.
“We can’t be constantly at each other’s throats. I’m tired of the political games,” she said, referencing a famous line from the late President Ronald Reagan: “There is no limit to the amount of good you can do if you don’t care who gets the credit.”
That strategy will be put to the test if she enters the race, particularly if Miyares does too. Pointing to her long hiatus from the political sphere, she said she would not have reentered public life without good reason.
“I left politics 20 years ago, and now I’m back again. So that must mean something. It means you’re not playing around,” she said. “I’m not going to smile in your face and stab you in the back. I just want to get things done.”
Jason Armesto (717) 599-8470